I live in the city of Pittsburgh, and based on what I see here there will be just as many cars in 2038 as there are now. Ridership on our toy light rail system is flat, and the Port Authority bus system increased ridership by 2% last year after years of decline. I am an avid cyclist, and appreciate all of the bike lanes and trails the city has built recently, but I am honestly not seeing an increase in the number of bicycle commuters. The six months of winter we seem to have here certainly has a lot to do with that. Last year Seattle saw a decline in bike commuters, and if it’s not catching on there… The reality is that the vast majority of people just aren’t hardcore enough to bike to work, and most will enjoy the comfort and convenience of a personal automobile over public transportation if it is at all possible for them.

Coincidentally, my motor vehicle is light truck that I bought exactly 20 years ago, and it is still running good. I have no intention of getting rid of it.